In the following chart we plot the CRB and the CCI at the top, along with various commodity sectors. The CRB is 27% below its 2008 high while the CCI is 7.5% above its 2008 high. That is quite the disparity. Which is more representative of commodity prices?

To answer the question we looked at the various commodity sectors. Precious Metals are obviously well above their 2008 high. Livestock and Agriculture have exceeded their 2008 highs while Industrial Metals are within a hair of their 2008 high.

The only sector not to reach or exceed its 2008 high is the energy sector. We show that along with the CRB in the chart below. One can notice the strong similarity between the CRB and energy commodities.

Obviously the weightings between the CCI and CRB are significantly different. Here is a quick look at the weightings. The CCI is first, CRB second.

Softs- 23.5, 16.0
Energy- 17.6, 39.0
Grains- 17.6, 13.0
Precious Metals- 17.6, 7.0
Meats- 11.8, 7.0
Industrials- 11.8, 18.0

Energy’s weighting was jacked much higher while the weighting of the food related sectors (meats, grains, softs) was decreased. The weighting of metals decreased but this was achieved through a significant reduction in weightings of silver and platinum and a rise in the weighting for aluminum.

Overall, the energy sector is the only sector that is not at or above its 2008 highs. Yet because of its massive weighting, commodities as per the CRB, appear to be well-off their highs. This is a problem because most people have no idea that the CCI even exists. Here is a suggestion that commodities have been in a half-lost decade. The author would surely have the opposite conclusion if he looked at the CCI or looked at the various commodity sectors.

I hate to be critical but those who only follow the CRB are doing themselves and their followers a tremendous disservice. They are missing the obvious. The CRB as its presently weighted, is a joke and obfuscates the real happenings in the commodities markets. In the summer, colleague Dave Skarica and I discussed this and the breakout in the CCI, which happened at least a month prior to the CRB. Now we see the reverse. If one looks at the CRB they see a market that just broke higher and is well off its highs. Yet, the CCI suggests a market that is almost in blow-off mode.

In our premium service, we’ve focused entirely on the CCI and as a result, our aggressive portfolio has gained 27% (38% excluding cash) in just a few short months. Consider a free 14-day trial to our service and find out our current views on commodities!

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Trendsman@Trendsman.com
Subscription Service

GLD fills one of the gaps we speculated upon yesterday.  Now the reversal and all’s fine in Goldbugville?  Maybe, given that yesterday was triggered by news and a policy maker’s b/s, which is typically not sustainable.

But what really made gold decline – along with most everything else is… yes, you got it; the air came out of this mess because unhealthy, soulless players who just could not stand watching the fun anymore have been grudgingly coming back into the markets.  Their punishment was all but assured sooner or later.  Gold has not been special of late, it has been another ‘play’.

The momos should not want to see the upside gap filled yet but they are the momos and they will probably cheer this.  So I will not be at all surprised to get the lower gap subsequently filled as well.  Then?  Higher we go sans the momos.

Friday’s rally could be something simpler like window dressing by the funds. This is when the funds buy up all the top performing stocks for month end reporting. They do this so that their investors think they are on the ball and know what they are doing. Window dressing will end Monday and from there we could see some profit taking (selling) start. But for all we know Obama could be extending the tax cuts for everyone or cutting payroll taxes etc…

It would only take one of these events to trigger a sharp up move in the market and that could be what Friday’s move was anticipating. That being said volume has remained light and during low volume session the market has a tendency to move higher. Sell offs in the market require strong volume to pull the market down, so until volume picks up there could still be higher prices just around the corner.

Let’s take a look at some charts…

SPY – SP500 60 Minute Intraday Chart

Last week we saw the market reverse to the down side with a strong end of say sell off. That set the tone for some follow through selling and for any bounces to be sold into. That being said, the market always has a way of surprising traders and it did just that on Friday gapping above Thursday’s reversal high causing shorts to cover and the typical end of week light volume drift to help hold prices up.

NYSE Market Internals – 15 Minute Chart

I like to follow some market internals to help understand if investors are becoming fearful or greedy. It also helps me gauge if the market is over bought or oversold on any given day.

These three charts below show some interesting data.
Top Chart – This indicator shows me if the majority of shares traded are bought or sold. When the red line spikes up and trades above 5 then I know the majority of traders are buying over covering their shorts. I call this panic buying because traders are buying in fear that the market will continue higher and they will miss the train. When everyone is buying you know a pullback is most likely to occur.

Middle Chart – This is the NYSE advance/decline line. When this indicator is below -1500 then the market is over sold and bottom pickers/value buyers will step in and nibble at stocks. But when this indicator is trading over 1500 then you know the market is overbought and there should be some profit taking starting any time soon.

Bottom Chart – This is the put/call ratio and this tells us how many people are buying calls vs put options. When this indicator is below 0.80 level more traders are bullish and buying leverage. My theory is if they are buying leverage for higher prices, then they have already bought all their stocks and now want to add some leverage for more profits. When I see the majority of traders bullish then I an sure to tighten my stops (if long) as top my be forming.

Putting the charts together – When each of these charts are trading in the red zone know I must be cautious for any long positions because the market just may be starting to top. Or a short term correction may occur.

UUP – US Dollar Daily Chart

The US dollar has been under some serious pressure with all the talk about quantitative easing (printing money). Obviously the more the Fed’s print the less value the dollar will have. The chart below shows a green gap window which I think once it is filled should put the dollar in a oversold condition for a short term swing trade bounce before heading back down. A bounce in the dollar will put pressure on equities, gold and oil.

GLD – Gold Daily Chart

Gold continues to grind its way up. This move is looking very long in the teeth and pullback will most likely be sharp.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, equities and gold continue to grind their way higher while the US dollar continues its grind lower. When I say the market is grinding I am implying the market is over extended and a reversal any day should occur.

Financial stocks like Goldman (GS) which typically leads the market has been strongly underperforming over the past week. Insiders were selling GS very strongly which is strange and makes me wonder what’s up there? With the financial stocks underperforming it sure looks like a market reversal is just around the corner.

If Friday’s rally was simply window dressing by the funds then it should end on Monday and with any luck we will see a sharp reversal to the down side early this week.

You can get my ETF and Commodity Trading Signals if you become a subscriber of my newsletter. These free reports will continue to come on a weekly basis; however, instead of covering 3-5 investments at a time, I’ll be covering only 1. Newsletter subscribers will be getting more analysis that’s actionable. I’ve also decided to add video analysis as it allows me toe get more into across to you quicker and is more educational, and I’ll be covering more of the market to include currencies, bonds and sectors. Before everyone’s emails were answered personally, but now my focus is on building a strong group of traders and they will receive direct personal responses regarding trade ideas and analysis going forward.

Let the volatility and volume return!

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

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Wednesday was a big session with better than expected manufacturing surging the market 3%. In this article I will do a quick technical take on the current situation for the SP500 and gold as they are both trading at a key resistance level. also its important to know what type of price action we will get in the next 1-2 days so you can have your profit targets or protective stops in place depending on which side of the market you are currently playing.

SPY – SP500 Exchange Traded Fund – 60 Minute Chart

The market is currently in a down trend which means bounces get sold. But if you take a look at the buying volume ratio at the bottom of the chart you will notice that in an uptrend buying surges are the beginning of a rally, and during a downtrend buying surges are the end of a rally. I also want to mention that a lot of volume traded at this current level which you can see on the volume by price bars on the chart. This means there will be a lot of sellers to overcome before breaking to the upside.

The situation the market is at now makes things difficult to tell if this bounce will get sold, or if its just the starting of a rally. There are several arguments for each side but the one which I think has the most influence is the buying volume. It was very strong on this current bounce. It feels more like a rally but we will not know for sure for a couple days…

That being said, if the SP500 moves up Thursday then I would consider the market to be in an uptrend and exiting any short positions is a smart play. But if this bounce is sold and the market drops, then the 3% rally on Wednesday could all be given back and then some.

GLD Gold Exchange Traded Fund – 60 Minute Chart

Gold has continued to grind its way up to the previous top. Problem is the volume has been very light and that tells me there is not much demand for gold at these elevated prices. While we are still long gold it is crucial to have your protective stop in place so we lock in as much profit as possible for when the sharp selling spike happens.

Mid-Week Technical Take:

In short, the market feels like its trying to reverse back up but at this time its still in a down trend and trading under a key resistance level. This means trading with the trend and selling the bounces is still the play. That being said today’s strong volume makes this bounce suspect. Keeping positions small and setting a protective stop should be done as a safety precaution. The next couple days will shed some light for sure…

As for gold, I am still bullish but expecting our protective stops to be triggered any day now, which means we get paid and can mark another successful trade down on the scoreboard.

I’d like you to have my ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups! Get them here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/specialoffer/signup.html

Chris Vermeulen

Below are a few charts showing heavy volume resistance levels that will most likely cause the broad market & commodities to pullback or trade sideways for a few days as buyers and sellers play tug-o-war.

SLV – Silver Bullion ETF Trading

Silver had a very nice pop last week but if you step back and look the recent price action you can see that it’s still trading below the previous major bounce from back in June. It looks as though silver is a little over extended as large percentage moves tend to give back 25-50% of the mover shortly after.

Take a look at the price by volume bar. It shows there has been heavy volume traded at that $19.00 level and the previous time it was reached sellers stepped back in pulling silver down.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF Trading

Gold is trading deep into the resistance level and struggling to hold up. Last week we went long GLD after the bullish engulfing candle and took profits near the high two days later on Thursday’s price. Although gold is trading at resistance the intraday price action remains somewhat bullish/neutral for the time being.

USO – Oil ETF Trading

The oil ETF broke down from its large multi-month bear flag and is now bouncing up to test that breakdown/resistance level. This could be a possible kiss good bye. I will keep my eye on this commodity as it could provide us with a great shorting opportunity in the coming days.

SPY – SP500 ETF Trading

The equities market has been tried to bottom all week and Friday’s price action looks strong. While the chart looks strong the market internals are telling me the opposite. Last week we saw a gap down and Friday that gap window was filled. With heavy volume resistance just above the current price the odds are pointing to lower prices.

Weekend Equities and Commodities ETF Trading Report:

In short, it looks as though everything is trading just under or at resistance levels. That means sellers will start to enter the market and cause prices to stall (trade sideways/choppy) and or reverse lower.

That being said, with Friday’s strong close for oil and the sp500 I am expecting a gap higher in the morning because traders will review those charts this weekend and enter the market Monday feeling bullish.

If you would like to get my ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups checkout my service at:www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com/specialoffer/signup.html

Chris Vermeulen

One of the nice things with ETFs is that is allows everyone to follow the price of a commodity or index using any charting website and can even apply indicators to help spot key support and resistance levels using volume by price analysis. There is no need for a expensive data feeds, charting programs and you don’t have to worry about contract expiration.

Below are a few charts of the trend and my short term forecast.

GLD – Gold Bullion ETF

As you can see gold broke out of its support zone this week and popped into the next resistance level. This is very typical price action in the stock market. It is important to look at the price charts like an apartment building. It’s nothing but a bunch of floors and ceilings.

How it works; if a ball breaks though a floor it will naturally fall to the next floor and bounce. The same for if a ball breaks through a ceiling, it will hit the next ceiling then bounce back down. This is essentially how the market moves.

SLV – Silver ETF

Silver is forming a large pennant and nearing its apex. With the amount of volume traded within this large volume channel I would expect a sharp breakout once a direction is made.

USO – Oil Traded Fund

Crude oil had a funky day. Early Wednesday morning in pre-market trading we saw virtually every investment drop at the same time which was strange. Anyways the US dollar dropped sharply and oil when down also. Normally as the dollar drops oil rockets higher but that was not the case today.

Currently oil is trading between two trendlines and is trying to hold up. If we get a breakdown then we could see a sharp drop in oil over the next 1-2 weeks.

SPY- SP500 ETF Trading Fund

The SP500 is trading within a high volume channel, similar to silver. Once a breakout in either direction is made I would expect a sizable move lasting a few w

Mid-Week Commodity and Index ETF Report:

In short, the market looks bearish for the short term of 5-10 trading sessions. This is because everything looks to be trading near resistance levels. That naturally brings sellers out of the woodwork putting pressure on prices.

Silver and gold stocks tend to lead the metals sector on breakouts so it will be important to keep an eye on them as we near a possible breakout or breakdown in the metals. If you see SLV or GDX ETFs out performing the GLD gold fund by 2-3x then I would expect to see gold move higher later that session or the following day.

The US dollar trend usually helps to identify if oil will have downward pressure or not. Also energy stocks tend to lead the price of oil by a few hours and some times a day. I keep an eye on XLE energy etf for a feel of how the energy stocks are doing and also UUP US dollar fund.

As for equities tech, financials and the Russell 2K (small cap stock) tend to lead the way for the broad market. Watching XLK, XLF and IWM help to confirm breakouts.

If you would like to Get My Trading Analysis and Alerts please join my free newsletter at:www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Last Wednesday I sent out a report covering sector rotation comparing the price performance of these sectors from the January peak with last weeks price action. It was very interesting and it pointed to a sharp sell off Thursday or Friday

Here is last Wednesday’s report if you are interested: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/28-day-sector-rotation-commodity-index-update/

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GLD Gold ETF Daily & 60 Minute Chart

Last week gold gap higher then traded sideways for a few days. I will admit it was very tempting to buy into the move but I stuck with my trading strategy which is to not chase moves which gap in my direction.

Gaps are known to get filled about 70% of the time. What that means in this situation is that the price will most likely sell back down to fill that gap before trying to move higher.

All that said the problem I see now on the daily chart is the possibility of the mini Head & Shoulders pattern breaking down. If gold moves any lower then I would expect a sharp pullback. The measured move would equal a pullback to the $104 area on the GLD chart and the $1070 level for spot gold.

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SLV Silver ETF Trading Chart

The silver chart looks much different than gold’s but in reality they are trading in a similar situation. If silver moves any lower then sellers will flood the market and take the price down to the next support level. But if we get a bounce then it should surge and rally almost a $1 per ounce from this point.

Only time will tell as we let this trade unfold with a stop at $16.52.

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Natural Gas – Weekly Trading Chart

Natural gas has been selling down for almost 2 months. The chart is starting to show a possible buy point if all goes well in the next few weeks.

What I like about this chart is that we saw a break of a support level and heavy selling which tells me the general herd is getting shaken of their long positions. This extended sell off is now entering a support zone and could provide us with a low risk setup in the next 2-3 weeks.

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Crude Oil – Weekly Trading Chart

Oil is trading similar to gold and silver. It is trading at a key pivot point and could go either way quickly. I will be keeping my eye on the daily and 60 minute charts for a possible low risk entry point.

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Weekend Stock & Commodity Trading Conclusion:

In short, the overall market is trading at level were there is not much to we can do. Day traders are able to take advantage of this price action but not swing traders.

I feel the major indexes have another 1-2 down day left in them before a bounce, but it’s more difficult to gauge the momentum with a cool down period in the middle of it all (the weekend).

The market is on the edge of some exciting moves as I can feel something brewing. With any luck there could be some great opportunities in the coming days.

If you would like to receive my Free Weekly Trading Reports checkout my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas Mid-Week Trading Charts

So far this week has been pretty slow. Large cap stocks continue to lag the market which can be observed by looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which still has room to move higher before breaking the January high.

One important thing to note is that volume has picked up this week considerably - particularly on the SP500 and OEX. It’s difficult to say if this volume is a good sign or not.

A lot of stocks and sectors are trading near their January high and this gives traders a reason to unload shares. On the flip side, the several sectors and indexes have broken their January high and this triggers a surge in volume as breakout traders try to take advantage of the new high and momentum. So you can see how the surge of volume is not a useful indicator right now.

Here are some charts of what I think we could see in the coming weeks.

US Dollar Index – Daily Trading Chart

I follow the US dollar index very closely simply because it affects the prices of stocks and commodities. I used a line chart below in order to take out the daily candle stick noise which made it very difficult for our eyes to pick up this pattern.

The chart shows a possible head & shoulders pattern and if that is the case then we should see the dollar start to slide lower.  In turn, this would boost stocks and commodities. This is the fuel that I think could really move the market sharply higher in the coming weeks.

GLD Gold ETF – Daily Trading Chart

The price of gold looks to be setup for a nice bounce off support and the timing could just work out if the US Dollar starts to drop over the next few days. There could be a low risk setup just around the corner.

SLV Silver ETF – Daily Trading Chart

Silver has held up well but today’s reversal candle to the downside scares me a little. The odds are that silver will carry this strong momentum selling down for another 1-2 days. Again, with any luck, it will test support and the US Dollar will start to slide lower.

Crude Oil – Daily Trading Chart

Oil has had a great run the past month but as you can see it’s currently trading at the top of a large trading range. I would like to see a sideways move before it takes another run at the $84 level, but the 7 day bull flag that formed two weeks ago may have been enough to maintain the upward momentum. Again, if the Dollar drops we will see oil rally.

Natural Gas – Daily Trading Chart

This chart is actually very attractive looking. Even if you do not understand how to read charts I think it’s safe to say this one is a no brainer J

I will be closely watching for a potential low risk setup in the coming days.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:

In short, stocks and indexes are trading at resistance levels with many of them making new highs and that is great to see.

A lot of things are trading in limbo waiting to see what the US Dollar is going to do. Several months ago I posted some charts showing that 81 would be a key resistance level for the dollar. If it broke above that then 84 would be the next key level to watch. So we just have to wait and see… the hardest part of trading is the waiting.

Gold, silver, oil and natural gas all look like they could continue higher in the next few days if things unfold that quickly. But the market always finds a way to drag out moves so we could still be a 2-3 weeks away.

I hope this report helps give you an idea of where things are at in the market.

If you would like to receive my Free Trading Reports and Analysis be sure to visit my website: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Gold & SP500’s One Candle Rebound To Riches

It’s been a great year for trading!

So far February, last week and this week have being absolutely amazing for both swing traders and intraday traders.

On February 5^th we had extreme panic selling with nearly 35 sell orders for every 1 buy order on the NYSE. That extreme panic and dumping of shares was the day we jumped into the market and we nailed the bottom.

As my trading buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners would say “Buy When They Cry!” and that is exactly what subscribers did. Since then our gold, silver and the index funds have been moving up nicely.

I would like to note that there were several more technical reasons why we jumped into the market that day but I won’t get into the nitty-gritty cause this mid-week update would be a trading book…

Explanation of What happened Last Week & This Week

Ok this may get a little confusing but try to stick with me here…

If you recall last Wednesday’s mid-week report which was called “Gold, Silver & Stock Indices on the Verge of Rolling Over”, I talked about how I was bearish on the overall market. This report has a bunch of detailed charts explaining what was most likely to happen next and some trading.

Well, the market played out just as we had expected. The market dropped 1.35% in over night trading and the following trading session providing intraday traders using ETF’s, Futures or CFD’s a net profit between 1.35% to over 100% return within 17 hours of entering a trade depending on which trading vehicle you used. Check out how this trade was executed by reading my report titled “How To Use Multiple Time Frames For Setups” which I send out the next day. Understanding how to trade using different time frames is a must for all traders and this report shows you how.

Now here is the part that has thrown a lot of traders off

Just to recap, I posted an extremely bearish report saying the sky is falling on Wednesday. Thursday morning the market moved down as expected, and then late Thursday afternoon I sent out a trade alerts to buy a bunch of precious metal and stock etfs.

I understand why emails flooded my inbox that afternoon…. Everyone wanted to know how I can say the market is falling then turn around and buy the very next day.

It’s actually a really simple answer. “I don’t fall in love with my positions” and “I re-evaluate the market after each new candlestick on the chart”.

Trading is not an easy task, that we all know. The market tests and bends my brain to the limit on a regular basis and if one cannot control their emotions and stick with a set of trading rules, then you will eventually lose all your money.

I have placed thousands of trades in my lifetime and pulling the trigger to get in and out of a position does not phase me anymore. But the problem is most people don’t want to exit a losing trade because then they are proven wrong and most people hate being wrong. If that’s what you are feeling, then you need fix it or get out of trading.

My general rule is “when in doubt, get out”. I would rather watch a trade move without me knowing I had it right, than be stuck in a losing trade, saying to myself, “Why the hell did I get into this trade?”

Re-Evaluating the Market or Your Investment

After each new candle is formed on a chart it is crucial to re-evaluate the charts. In other words if your main focus is to trade the daily chart then you better re-evaluate the strength of the chart each day and also check the 1 hour intraday chart for possible bullish or bearish patterns.

On the other hand, if you are an intraday trader focusing on trading the 1 hour chart, then you better be evaluating things every hour, and also check the 5 or 10 minute charts for patterns to keep an eye on price and volume action.

Below are daily charts of some ETF’s I trade showing how we have been trading the market. You can see February 25^th the market reversed to the upside and that is when we went long again as prices formed an outside reversal candle and these funds have been moving higher ever since.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:

In short, it’s been a great start to the year with the market performing within its regular trading patterns between fear and greed.

I believe 2010 is going to be very tough for individuals who do not fully understand the market and how to manage risk. I figure the market is about to top in the next week or so then start to head lower. 2010 will most likely trade in a large sideways range for 8-10 months and maybe even longer. Being able to spot market reversals and trade them actively is were the money is this year. No grand slams, just a bunch of single base hits.

I would like to see the market rally and makes new highs but I am ready for what ever the market dishes out in the coming months.

I hope this report helped you to understand that trading is an active sport and being able to change directions one day to another is just part of the game.

If you would like to learn and trade at the same time I will be launching a service where I provide all my personal trades and analysis for your to follow along in real-time. Members will receive all my intraday and swing trade alerts for indexes and commodities Futures allowing you to trade which ever vehicle you want whether it’s an ETF, Leveraged ETF, Futures Contract or CFD. This way your timing is accurate and you can trade which ever investment you are comfortable trading with.

There will be a 24/7 chatroom allowing us to trade around the clock when setups arise. Also, members can swap ideas, ask me questions, make new trading buddies etc… There is even a squawk box feature! I can talk live with audio to everyone in the chatroom to the site can hear me for important news or trades alerts.

All trade alerts are instantly posted in the members area, chat-room and sent via email making it one of the most powerful trading services I have seen available online.

If you are interested please fill out the form to be notified for this service which will start the last week of March or the first week of April. It will have limited availability to keep it personal.

If you are interested check our my Trading Alert Services at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

Three weeks ago on February 5^th, we saw an extremely high level of fear in the market with selling vs. buying volume at a 9:1 ratio. We note that in 2009 this extreme level of fear occurred at the bottom of each significant pullback.

Since this panic selling low in February 2010 we have seen stocks and commodities work their way higher, which we expected. Overall the broad market looks as though it’s trying to make a move higher.

Below are some ETF charts of gold, silver, oil and the indexes.

GLD Gold ETF – Daily Trading Chart

Gold lead the market higher in 2009 and also lead the market lower in December of 2009. It looks as though gold could be starting a new trend higher.

You can see the clean breakout of the down channel and then a test of the channel at support.  This type of price action also forms an inverse head and shoulders pattern for those who like trading patterns. J This is very bullish price action.

SLV Silver ETF – Daily Trading Chart

Silver has much of the same chart features as gold, but is slightly skewed.  This is not particularly surprising though, as silver virtually always behaves with less defined chart patterns due to its characteristically funky price action.

USO Oil Fund – Daily Trading Chart

As with gold and silver, oil’s trading chart has formed a pivot low also, but the trend line is much steeper than what I am looking for. I prefer a flatter trend line as price growth is more sustainable.

As you can see in on the USO chart, back in December price rallied at almost the same angle as is currently the case, and then notice what happened. Once the momentum died out the price dropped straight back down. I call steep trends like this a Parabolic Rally.

Scroll up and look at the first chart (GLD) and observe the parabolic rally going into December.  It too suffered a sharp drop straight back down when momentum died out.

Stock Indexes – SP500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000

Last week the market sold down the first half of the week, then bounced back up forming a possible pivot low. The daily chart for these indexes look virtually the same as the GLD, SLV and USO charts above for the past 5 trading sessions.

But, one little thing has me concerned….

When looking at the 5 minute intraday charts (posted below) you can see at the very last minute before the market closed HUGE selling volume flooded the ETFs.  The market ended up losing all of its gain for the day.

With any luck this was just end-of-the-month hedge, mutual fund, etc. portfolio rebalancing.  But I am somewhat concerned that more of this selling could step back into the market Monday or Tuesday.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

Overall, last week started on a negative note but ended strong after forming a reversal pattern.

It looks as though stocks and commodities have formed an ABC retrace pattern and are now ready to move higher.

How much higher you ask?

Well, I believe 2010 is going to be a traders market. I envision an 8-12 month sideways consolidation (large bull flag) forming. If this materializes then buying on over sold dips, as we did on Feb 5^th, and scaling out on strength at resistance levels will be our goal in the coming months.

A bunch of 4-8% trades is what I’m figuring, but with leveraged etfs we can double and triple those type of returns.  Now that is something to anticipate with delighted optimism!

If you would like to receive my free weekly trading reports please visit TheGoldAndOilGuy at: www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen