The Daily Commodities » Sovereign Debt http://www.thedailycommodities.com Tue, 31 Jan 2012 04:32:05 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.3 How to Survive The Three Most Imminent Disasters of 2010-2012 http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/03/how-to-survive-the-three-most-imminent-disasters-of-2010-2012/ http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/03/how-to-survive-the-three-most-imminent-disasters-of-2010-2012/#comments Sat, 13 Mar 2010 05:31:06 +0000 MoneyandMarkets.com http://www.thedailycommodities.com/?p=646 How to Survive The Three Most Imminent Disasters of 2010-2012

by Sean Brodrick 03-12-10

Sean Brodrick

Needless to say, I’m delighted to see my book surge to #2!

But what pleases me even more is the fact that more investors are finally learning how to take urgently-needed steps to prepare for THREE major disasters — and profit opportunities — dead ahead.

Disaster #1: America’s Empire of Debt. If you think Americans are living a normal life, think again. Our entire consumer economy, lifestyle, livelihood — and nearly all or wealth — is predicated on one thing: DEBT.

The outstanding public debt is $12.3 TRILLION. The U.S. has a little over 307 million people. So that means every single man, woman and child in this country is responsible for $40,000 in government debt — over and above any money they have borrowed personally.

The government is now struggling to get the deficit back DOWN to $1 TRILLION dollars … and there’s little hope they’ll even accomplish that much.

Meanwhile, the public debt is increasing at a rate of $3.5 billion per day. And that’s just the public debt. Consumer and corporate debt add trillions more!

The Good-Time Charlies in Washington would have you think this party can continue forever. But now the bill is coming due, and the longer we put it off, the worse it gets.

How will it end? Only two scenarios are possible:

  • Washington will slash spending to the bone (and raise taxes till), sinking our economy into a depression. Or …
  • Washington will DESTROY the value of our money.

Except for a handful of Pollyannas with their heads in the sand, few experts think there’s any other alternative. For citizens and investors who are unprepared, it will be an unmitigated disaster lasting for many years. For those who ARE prepared, it could be the opportunity of a lifetime.

Disaster #2: Peak Oil Is Rushing Toward Us Like a Runaway Train. The only reason oil prices aren’t higher right now is because of weakness in the U.S. and European economies.

Meanwhile, however, the two most populous countries in the world — China and India — are adding to their fuel demand at a rip-roaring pace.

In response, oil companies are now putting drills down 4,000 feet in the Gulf of Mexico to then drill through 35,000 feet of rock. These wells are deeper than Mount Everest is tall! They aren’t doing this because it’s fun. They’re doing it because it’s the only oil they can find! And one thing you can count on — it won’t be cheap oil!

How will it end? Potentially in an oil crisis that sends the U.S. deeper into an economic tailspin — dramatically changing the way we live, while creating enormous opportunities for those who invest in the right solutions.

Disaster #3: Water Is the Quiet Emergency That Could Shape the 21st Century. For most Americans, water is less expensive each month than cable television or having a cell phone. So they barely think about it.

Not so for most of the rest of the world! The World Bank reports that 80 countries now have water shortages that threaten health and economies while 40% of the world — more than 2 billion people — have NO access to clean water or sanitation.

Heck, even in the U.S., most local water systems are old and in desperate need of upgrades, with legal battles heating up over water rights across the country.

The key: Sure, you can substitute various alternate fuels for fossil fuels like crude oil. BUT THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR WATER! This is a crisis that is spinning out of control around the world.

How will it end? Most people would not be able to handle a water emergency. If droughts worsen, we could see people forcibly relocated from cities and areas that just can’t support their populations. Meanwhile, companies that can provide real solutions will soar in value.

What To Do Now

In my book, The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide, I give you a practical, reasonable, step-by-step guide on precisely how to prepare — when, where and how.

One Amazon reviewer writes: “I normally shy away from anything with ’survivalist’ in the title, but after skimming the introduction of Brodrick’s Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide I was hooked. The author offers tons of practical advice in an easy-to-follow format and avoids the Chicken Little approach … the sky may well be falling sometime soon, but anyone who reads Brodrick’s book will be prepared.”

Another says: “If you don’t read this book, hope your neighbor did! I’ve doubled my knowledge, which I thought was pretty extensive.”

A third writes: “Brilliant crisis preparedness book — probably the best as of 2010. The author does a splendid job of covering big economic trends and financial advice, combined with more traditional survival topics. Each chapter has a handy ‘least you can do’ checklist at the end.”

If you wish, you can order The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide now at any of the major online booksellers. Just click on your choice of Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Borders, or Books-A-Million. They all have the book in stock. And they can ship it to you immediately.

Then, while you’re waiting for the book to arrive, here’s what I recommend you start thinking about:

PLAN: Plan for the three most probable and imminent disasters facing the entire world today. Recognize that, unlike fire, flood, and earthquakes that no one can predict, these ARE predictable. And they are likely to strike globally!

PREPARE AHEAD OF TIME: People who get scared can panic, and people who panic can not only make fatal mistakes, but wind up spending too much money. Once you identify what you need to do, find solutions that won’t cost you an arm and a leg. A big part of my book is about how to save money in your everyday life, and how to spend that money wisely to prepare for the worst.

BE PROACTIVE: If a financial crisis or other disaster causes disruptions in your town, what are you going to do? What about if the lights go out and don’t come back on … or the water stops coming out of your faucets? You have to be ready to act and act decisively no matter what comes your way.

TURN LEMONS INTO LEMONADE: History proves that each and every natural or man-made disaster is a double-edged sword: It delivers losses and hardships to the unprepared but amazing opportunities to those who are ready. Follow my instructions, and you will not only help your fellow citizens out of trouble, but you could be a trailblazer in building your wealth.

I write to you with a great sense of urgency — there is a tsunami of trouble headed our way. Indeed, to AVOID the most imminent and probable disasters ahead, our country would have to beat enormous odds.

But don’t fret. In my book, I don’t tell you to uproot your life. I show you how to save money. And I show you how to make money!

Order at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Borders, or Books-A-Million. Then, let me know what you think.

Sincerely,

Sean Brodrick,
Author, The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide


About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates
but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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The $21 Billion Hot Potato http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/03/the-21-billion-hot-potato/ http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/03/the-21-billion-hot-potato/#comments Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:24:03 +0000 MoneyandMarkets.com http://www.thedailycommodities.com/?p=488 by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 03-07-10

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

With global investors attacking any sovereign government that’s running massive deficits or stuck with a pile of bad debts …

And with Uncle Sam obviously the world’s greatest debtor, beggar and fiat money printer …

Some folks at the Treasury Department now fear the United States could be the next victim.

So they’re scrambling to get rid of at least SOME of the junk they piled up during the great bailout frenzy of 2009.

Case in point:

The government officials running Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have decided to force big banks to take back $21 billion in bad mortgages.

If they can get some of these sick assets off the government’s books, they figure, they can say they did SOMETHING before global investors start attacking.

So they’re using various loan provisions to force giant institutions like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup to buy some of them back.

But these bad loans are a hot
potato that no one wants!

Fannie and Freddie certainly don’t want them. Just since 2007, they’ve already lost $202 billion on loans like these, a figure that dwarfs the $21 billion in loans they’re trying to pawn off to the banks.

Meanwhile, the banks wish they could stuff every one of these bad loans into lead boots and toss them into the East River.

The loans are already in default. The homes used as collateral are now worth far less than the outstanding balances on the loans. And, inevitably, the banks that get stuck with them are going to take huge hits to their bottom line. To whit …

  • JPMorgan recently said that it loses about 50 cents on the dollar for every bad loan it has to buy back.
  • Bank of America’s mortgage division lost $3.84 billion last year, thanks largely to these buy-backs. Plus, the volume of buybacks is increasing so dramatically, it has to set aside $1.9 billion and hire new employees to process these buy-backs.
  • Wells Fargo had to repurchase $1.3 billion in these loans in 2009 — THREE TIMES the 2008 amount — and also had to pay nearly $1 billion in costs as part of the repurchases.
  • Citigroup has had to increase its repurchase reserves six fold this year alone!

And this effort to get bad loans of the books is just ONE example of the spreading fear among Washington officials.

Look. They saw how global investors dumped Greek bonds a few weeks ago. And they saw it happen AGAIN this week as investors attacked Britain. They know we could be next.

What they DON’T realize is that shuffling a few billion around is tantamount to moving deck chairs on the Titanic.

It’s too late to prevent an all-out attack on the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds. And when it hits, you can expect a series of dramatic changes not only in the U.S. bond market, but in every asset class.

My recommendations:

  1. Don’t touch long-term bonds with a ten-foot pole;
  2. Keep most of your money tucked away in a safe place, even if the yield you earn is disappointing; and
  3. Stay on the look-out for major profit opportunities — both with up and DOWN moves — in all FIVE asset classes.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin


About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions.

© 2010 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15430 Endeavour Drive, Jupiter, FL 33478
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Brits Pounded As Debts, Deficits Hit Home. Next Up: Us! http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/03/brits-pounded-as-debts-deficits-hit-home-next-up-us/ http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/03/brits-pounded-as-debts-deficits-hit-home-next-up-us/#comments Sun, 07 Mar 2010 13:50:15 +0000 MoneyandMarkets.com http://www.thedailycommodities.com/?p=453 Brits Pounded As Debts, Deficits Hit Home. Next Up: Us!

by Mike Larson 03-05-10

Mike Larson

Boy are things getting ugly in the U.K. The British currency, the pound, is getting crushed. The price of long-term British debt securities, called gilts, is heading down. And the cost of default insurance on the country’s debt is rising steadily.

My takeaway: This is but a preview of what’s to come here in the U.S.

Why the Crisis Is Coming
To a Head in the U.K.

Britain’s finances are in shambles. The country’s budget deficit is running at more than 12 percent of gross domestic product, roughly the same as in Greece. In fact, for the first time, the country recorded a whopping $6.7 billion deficit in January … much worse than the $3.9 billion SURPLUS economists were expecting.

The U.K. government is planning to sell $349 billion in debt this year, the most ever, to cover its deficit. But demand is flagging, with foreign investors dumping the most U.K. sovereign debt in nine months in January and yields generally rising.

Then a few days ago, the crisis came to a head. The catalyst: New polling data that threw the British political outlook into chaos. Polls showed that the Conservative Party’s lead over the Labour Party shrunk to its lowest level in more than two years.

It now appears that neither party could come out of spring elections with a clear majority, leaving the U.K. with a “hung” parliament. That would make it much more difficult for the government to reduce the nation’s debts and deficits.

Investors are becoming more afraid of British debt.
Investors are becoming more afraid of British debt.

With all of that, it’s no wonder …

  • The British pound plunged six days in a row, its longest series of declines since October 2008.
  • The yield on 10-year U.K. government debt recently hit 4.27 percent, compared with a low last fall of 3.44 percent.
  • The cost of protecting against a British debt default in the credit default swap market surged to more than 101 basis points, or $101,000 per $10 million of debt. That’s up from around 44 bps in the fall.

Striking Similarities …

You don’t need a Ph.D. in economics to see the striking similarities between the situation in the U.K. and the situation here in the U.S. …

  • Our debt situation is totally out of control, with the national debt on track to double over the next decade to almost $19 trillion.
  • Our budget picture is a mess, with $8.5 trillion in deficits projected over the next 10 years.
  • Our foreign creditors are starting to sell our bonds, with China alone dumping $34.2 billion of Treasuries in December, the most ever.

And politically, we’re facing the same gridlock and inaction as the U.K.
Just look at the deficit commission nonsense …

Bill Gross
“The sovereign debt crisis is subprime all over again.” — Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest mutual fund.

President Obama had to create an 18-member panel by executive order because Congress voted down an earlier proposal. Since it’s a presidential commission, Congress can just ignore any findings. And those findings won’t even be released until December 1, for purely political reasons (that’s after the mid-term Congressional elections).

Lastly, just like the U.K., we have bailed out, backstopped, or otherwise taken over so many institutions and segments of the capital markets that our own balance sheet is getting shakier and shakier.

As PIMCO Chief Investment Officer and “bond guru” Bill Gross just noted in a monthly commentary:

“If core sovereigns such as the U.S., Germany, U.K., and Japan ‘absorb’ more and more credit risk, then the credit spreads and yields of these sovereigns should look more and more like the markets that they guarantee. The Kings, in other words, in the process of increasingly shedding their clothes, begin to look more and more like their subjects. Kings and serfs begin to share the same castle.”

Bottom line: We’re running this country’s finances off the rails. And just like in Greece … Ireland … Spain … and now the U.K., it’s going to come back to haunt us.

So consider dumping your long-term U.S. bonds, and buying some gold as a hedge against global debt and deficit problems. Or if you’re more aggressive, check out a service like my Crisis Opportunity ETF Trader, where my subscribers are positioned to profit from this unfolding fiscal nightmare.

Until next time,

Mike


About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions.

© 2010 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 15430 Endeavour Drive, Jupiter, FL 33478
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Why you Should be Worried about China http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/02/why-you-should-be-worried-about-china/ http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/02/why-you-should-be-worried-about-china/#comments Sun, 28 Feb 2010 05:24:33 +0000 MoneyandMarkets.com http://www.thedailycommodities.com/?p=309 By Bryan Rich

Originally Published Here

Toward the end of last year, many market followers were speculating on a Fed hike as early as the first half of 2010. Global stock markets had experienced explosive bounces, commodity prices had surged from the crisis lows, and risk spreads and market volatility had all subsided.

In short, markets were pricing in a very optimistic outlook for global economic recovery — a return to normalcy.

But just two short months into 2010, the exuberance about recovery has deflated. As I’ve explained in many of my Money and Markets columns, the world is still saddled with problems and vulnerable to lurking threats …

In the U.S., unemployment is sustaining high levels, the housing market continues to weigh on consumer balance sheets and confidence has again taken a dive.

There is more uncertainty, which is likely to impact the prospects for global growth. People are waking up to what’s likely a long road to recovery, given the damage from, what Alan Greenspan calls, “the worst financial crisis ever.”

And for now, the global financial markets are taking cues from three key themes …

Theme #1:
Sovereign Debt Problems

Fiscal problems in Greece are mushrooming into a global, sovereign debt crisis.
Fiscal problems in Greece are mushrooming into a global, sovereign debt crisis.

The saga surrounding Greece’s finances has created tremors in the European monetary union. And the speculative pressures on countries surrounding their fiscal challenges will likely find bigger targets in the coming months, namely the UK, Japan and the U.S.

The impact of this theme on global growth prospects: Negative.

Theme #2:
China Tightening Credit

The bubble alarm for Chinese authorities was the massive surge of new loans in the first half of January. New bank loans last month approached levels of last year, when liquidity pumping was in emergency mode. Now China is tightening up bank reserve ratios and curtailing easy money programs, fearing a bubble burst of its own.

The impact of this theme on global growth prospects: Negative.

Theme #3:
Fed’s Exit Strategy

The Fed’s move in the discount rate last week was the first active step it has taken toward reversing its emergency policies. Up to that point, the Fed had only guided (or allowed) the programs in place to either expire or mature — indeed, passive steps. And the timing was a surprise …

The Fed's bumping up the discount rate was a growth positive sign.
The Fed’s bumping up the discount rate was a growth positive sign.

The move came only eight days after the text of a Bernanke speech that said the discount rate would start moving higher “before long.”

To act so soon after making that comment will create loads of excitement and speculation whenever the Fed chooses to drop the magic words — “extended period” — from its guidance on keeping the benchmark Fed Funds rate at current levels.

The impact of this theme on global growth prospects: Positive.

Overall …

A Sentiment Shift
Has Taken Place

These three themes are keeping the dollar on solid footing and keeping pressure on European currencies and those currencies that are dependent upon sustained growth and demand from China (i.e. the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, Brazilian real).

With all of that said, there is clearly a sentiment shift that has taken place when it comes to the recovery prospects for global economies.

Now the growing consensus is shifting away from the theories of a V-shaped economic recovery and toward the alternative scenarios … most visibly, a sovereign debt crisis.

But while a sovereign debt crisis is already underway and will likely continue to spread, I don’t think it’s the biggest threat to the global economy.

Rather, the biggest threat will likely come from growing trade tensions between China and the rest of the world.

That’s because …

China’s Currency Is
Enemy #1 to Global Recovery

Over the last 14 years, China’s economy has grown a whopping eight-fold, to $4.9 trillion, and has quickly ascended to become the world’s third-largest economy.

During the same period, the U.S. economy has only doubled in size.

As far as currencies are concerned, the dramatic outperformance of the Chinese economy relative to the U.S. economy would normally be reflected in a much stronger Chinese currency.

But, of course, China controls the value of its currency. They allowed it to strengthen only 18 percent during those 14 years — a mere drop in the bucket.

And that’s where tensions are threatening to boil over. It’s not just with its key export market, the United States, but equally as tumultuous with its Asian neighbors.

Just how out of line is China’s currency?

Let’s take a look …

In the table below, you can see on a purchasing-power parity basis, the Yuan (China’s currency) is 40 percent to 50 percent too cheap relative to the U.S. dollar.

China's Top Trade Partners

Source: IMF

You can also see how China’s export-centric neighbors are feeling the pain of China’s artificially cheap currency, too. For example, based strictly on currency values, it would cost 37 percent more to import identical goods from South Korea than it would from China.

Threat of Protectionism

In my September 19 column, Protectionism an Enemy of Recovery, I wrote extensively about the threats that protectionism represents to the global economy.

And it’s widely believed that the world economy cannot find a path of sustainable growth until those key countries with lopsided trade become more balanced.

Consequently, the G-20 has made Chinese currency policy its number one agenda, under the code word “rebalancing.”

China's unwillingness to let the Yuan strengthen could hinder global recovery.
China’s unwillingness to let the Yuan strengthen could hinder global recovery.

As it becomes increasingly evident that China will not play ball on allowing its currency to appreciate to a fair value, expect the geopolitical tensions to rise and expect to see two forms of protectionism follow: Trade tariffs and currency devaluations against major currencies, to which the value of the Yuan is primarily linked.

And while a global economic recovery is already beginning to look like a longer road than many have expected, an outbreak of protectionism would likely derail recovery all together.

That’s why I continue to think that safety and capital preservation will re-emerge as the primary driver of capital flows around the world towards the U.S. dollar.

Regards,

Bryan

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GDP Data Strong but Dissapoints http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/02/gdp-data-strong-but-dissapoints/ http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/02/gdp-data-strong-but-dissapoints/#comments Thu, 25 Feb 2010 09:47:49 +0000 Andrew Wilkinson http://www.thedailycommodities.com/?p=261 GDP data strong, but disappoints

Wednesday February 25, 2010

Global yield curves are marginally flatter at the end of a week that delivered fresh economic worries around the world, compounded by fresh signs of smoke in Europe where investors responded to threats of a Greek downgrade. Long yields are firmer in price while short-dated futures contracts are lower by a similar amount. The net effect confirms the response towards flatter yields seen during the week. Interest rate expectations continue to focus on near-zero rates for an extended period.

Eurodollar futures – It’s hard to determine what reaction interest rate markets should have to Friday’s GDP report. The expected upwards revision to fourth quarter growth was in-line with expectations at 5.9% and higher than the preliminary 5.7% reading. The improvement stemmed from a sharp reduction in the pace of inventory declines as businesses realized that stocks were already mean and lean. Final demand data was actually revised lower and portrays a slightly more docile consumer than at first blush. So we have a blistering headline rebound weighed upon by lackluster consumer spending. More recent data has also raised eyebrows as fresh weakness is apparent in the housing market where data for construction and transactions are both pointing to another tepid spring for realtors and builders.

Existing home sales in the U.S. fell 7.2% in January bringing the annualized pace to the lowest reading in seven months. Meanwhile a University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for February declined at the margin pretty much in line with market expectations. All of today’s data gives cause for bonds to keep a positive tone sending yields lower. Meanwhile the weaker consumer confidence data and lacking conviction in the housing market was enough to swing Eurodollars from minor intraday losses to gains. March treasury note futures are eight ticks higher at 118-25 to yield 3.62%. The December Eurodollar contract is trading at an implied 0.81% yield.

European short futures – German bunds are pushing intraday heights heading into the final hours of European trading. The March contract is up 14 ticks at 124.44 and is challenging the 124.52 peak of February 2 as investors worry about weekend prospects for negative weekend developments on the Greek story.

British interest rate futures – British growth was also revised higher earlier today with the fourth quarter expansion lifted to 0.3% from 0.1%. But a downward revision to the third quarter data meant a large final quarter contraction of 3.3% compared to the 3.2% announced last month, which offset today’s better data. March gilts are ending the session just about unchanged at 115.75 while short sterling futures are about two ticks weaker in price.

Australian rate futures – Aussie bills also dipped just slightly ahead of next week’s RBA meeting at which dealers’ expectations over an interest rate increases are evenly split. Firm data from Japan overnight indicates ongoing Asian market recovery.

Canada’s 90-day BA’s –Canadian bill futures are unchanged to higher along the strip with government bond prices once again on the rise as yields fall as the yield curve continues to flatten.

Japan –A recovery for stocks domestically and firm retail sales data helped confidence return a little to Japanese markets. Eyes continue to remain fixed on the Toyota recall. Today’s strong reading for industrial production showed a gain for January of 2.6% blowing away a 1.1% forecast but was not enough to change 10-year note yields standing at 1.30%.

Andrew Wilkinson
Senior Market Analyst
ibanalyst@interactivebrokers.com


Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Interactive Brokers LLC nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither IB nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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Interview with Adrian Douglas http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/02/interview-with-adrian-douglas/ http://www.thedailycommodities.com/2010/02/interview-with-adrian-douglas/#comments Wed, 24 Feb 2010 09:14:32 +0000 Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT http://www.thedailycommodities.com/?p=210 Yesterday I interviewed Adrian Douglas the proprietor of Market Force Analysis (http://www.marketforceanalysis.com). He discusses Oil, the US Dollar, the Carry Trade, China and Inflation. Take a peak at his bio below the video. For the Gold/Silver portion of the interview, click here: Gold/Silver Interview, part 1.

Adrian Douglas is a member of the Board of Directors of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). Douglas graduated from Cambridge University, England, in 1980. He worked for 20 years in the oil and gas industry. He is the founder of Market Force Analysis which is an investor service that uses a unique algorithm and methodology for analyzing commodity futures markets and in particular for identifying appropriate entry and exit points. He publishes the market letter of that name MarketForceAnalysis.com. While analyzing many different commodities the service has a strong focus on precious metals.

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